流动性偏紧钱荒,银行在赌央妈”会”出手,这次央妈还会放水吗?

作者: 发布时间:2017-12-07 17:18:19  来源: [手机访问]
导读: 货币学派的代表人物之一卡尔布伦纳曾说过:“央行的行为通过基础货币和货币供给的运动,被传送到经济活动中,而在这一传送过程中,各种资产的相对价格、负债和新

货币学派的代表人物之一卡尔布伦纳曾说过:“央行的行为通过基础货币和货币供给的运动,被传送到经济活动中,而在这一传送过程中,各种资产的相对价格、负债和新资产的生产都得到了调整”,从中我们可以看出央行货币行为的重要性。

流动性偏紧钱荒,银行在赌央妈”会”出手,这次央妈还会放水吗?

目前来看,美国已经加息多次并缩表,即货币收紧,许多国家比如加拿大,英国,韩国已经跟随美联储的加息步伐,我国货币政策已经调整为不在宽松,世界货币趋势已经从过去的量化宽松逐步调整为收紧,这种货币大趋势对于经济活动以及资产价格都将产生重大的影响。

近日,中国人民银行金融研究所所长孙国峰指出:“货币政策目标要考虑更广泛的金融周期而不仅仅局限于资产价格,金融周期的背后,是银行的信贷,或者说广义信贷的扩张。资产泡沫的背后是银行的过度借贷,过度借贷往往又是由超低利率引起的”。

结合当下的情景来看,10月末,广义货币(M2)余额165.34万亿元,同比增长8.8%,2007年时m2只有40万亿左右,十年来翻了4倍多,那么资产价格呢?尤其是房子翻了多少倍?如果说在各国应对金融危机时采取的货币量化宽松政策比喻为货币宽松周期,那么当下随着美联储带头开启加息并缩表,一场货币收紧趋势正在蔓延至全球,所导致资产价格会出现调整,关键是调整后经济会出现什么情况呢?央行官员又释放了哪些信号?

流动性偏紧钱荒,银行在赌央妈”会”出手,这次央妈还会放水吗?

防范金融风险

孙国峰表示,“货币政策新框架重点在于防范金融风险,宏观审慎政策对于防范系统性金融风险非常必要,但仅仅控制杠杆率不足以应对金融周期,因此,货币政策和宏观审慎政策应当共同应对金融周期“。

这就是高层经常提到的双支柱调控框架,其侧重于维护金融稳定和防范系统性金融风险。比较有意思的是,孙所长提到一段话:如果中央银行长期保持低利率水平,就会鼓励银行的冒险行为,并且可能和中央银行的货币政策之间形成博弈。也就是说,如果市场预期到中央银行在金融市场受到压力就会降低利率,反而会鼓励一些银行,特别是一些高杠杆的银行过度承担风险,从而导致了风险或者危机发生概率提高“

这是向有些银行发出的一种警告,一般银行在受到市场承压时,往往寄托于央妈释放流动性,或者是出手帮助,有时候就是在赌央妈”会”出手,事实上一般也能赌赢,不过那都是过去,以后可就不好说了,尤其是在流动性偏紧时,容易变现的资产需要注意了。

孙国峰认为,“长期利率过低是导致金融危机爆发的一个重要原因,长期借贷的利率可能对于防范金融周期的风险很重要”。通过上述所讲,长期利率过低被多次提及,并且长期利率过低容易引发金融危机,结合货币政策与宏观审慎的调控政策,其侧重于金融稳定与防范金融风险,那么对于长期利率过低这种现象是不是将要调整呢?

流动性偏紧钱荒,银行在赌央妈”会”出手,这次央妈还会放水吗?

调整的方法有很多种,不过从孙所长的另一句话来看:“从防范风险的角度看,货币政策的国际协调有利于防范跨境资金流动的风险”。或许从这一句话中能更清晰的看出一些货币信号,为了防范金融风险,这是央行要准备紧随国外加息的步伐吗?(最后小编再说一句话央行孙所长远比一般经济学家厉害,看问题直指核心,不得不听啊,明年有热闹了)

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}, shareInfo: { shareUrl: 'https://m.toutiao.com/group/6496621580385255950/', abstract: '货币学派的代表人物之一卡尔布伦纳曾说过:“央行的行为通过基础货币和货币供给的运动,被传送到经济活动中,而在这一传送过程中,各种资产的相对价格、负债和新资产的生产都得到了调整”,从中我们可以看出央行货币行为的重要性。
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