江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

作者: 发布时间:2017-12-09 17:18:27  来源: [手机访问]
导读: 周五(12月8日)美国劳工部公布的11月份非农就业数据向好,但薪资依旧不及预期。11月非农就业人口新增22.8万,高于预期的19.5万;美国11月失业率为4.1%,维稳于1

  周五(12月8日)美国劳工部公布的11月份非农就业数据向好,但薪资依旧不及预期。11月非农就业人口新增22.8万,高于预期的19.5万;美国11月失业率为4.1%,维稳于17年低点。非农数据公布后,美国联邦基金利率期货暗示,美联储12月的加息概率为98.3%。本周五非农并没有黑天鹅,波动不大,有些大跌眼镜,令人失望,日内区间只不过1243-1252震荡,可以说一个假非农。

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

  自9月以来,金价走势便转为下行趋势,本周在众多利空事件的影响下,黄金更是连续失守1270美元、1260美元以及1250美元三大整数关口,最终收于7月中旬以来低位附近。伴随着外界普遍预计,美联储将在12月13日召开的会议上加息的情况下,黄金价格对利率走高很敏感,这提高了持有非收益率资产的机会成本。金价下周走势难言乐观!

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

  利空一:美国11月非农就业数据向好提振美联储加息预期

  北京时间周五21:30,美国劳工部公布的11月份非农就业数据向好,但薪资依旧不及预期。现货黄金上冲3美元后下挫5美元至1244.11美元/盎司,随后小幅反弹逾6美元至1250.96美元/盎司附近。

  一方面,薪资不及预期但好于前值,黄金起初上冲3美元后下挫,但金价上个交易日跌破1250美元/盎司重要支撑位后,技术上存在反弹需求,加上美联储本月加息已近乎板上钉钉,黄金随后还是大幅拉升,实现深V反转。

  利空二:税改协议终稿有望圣诞前出炉

  美国参议院共和党人周三(12月6日)同意与众议院就税改立法举行会谈。有初步迹象显示,议员们可能弥合分歧,在12月22日截止日前就最终议案达成一致。

  市场普遍认为,税改将刺激经济加速增长,从而推升通胀回升。那么届时市场风险偏好持续上升,使得避险资产黄金的吸引力下降。

  利空三:美国政府停摆危机解除

  另一最新消息则显示,美国众议院投票通过将期限延长至本月22日的临时拨款法案,避免停摆。虽然仍为过渡性议案,但短期内美国政府停摆危机解除,还是提振了市场的风险偏好,利好美元,使得市场避险情绪进一步下降。

  荷兰银行资深贵金属和钻石分析师Georgette Boele称,预计金价在2018年将不太会出现上涨行情。他指出,2018年,美元不太可能被大幅抛售,原因包括美国收益率上升、美国经济增长势头强劲,以及美联储在2018年将加息两次,每次加息25个基点。事实上,预计美元将会温和复苏。

  非农利空未跌,黄金小涨过渡只为加息腾出驻底空间

  前两周完成了11月的见顶,12月加息卖预期,黄金顺势下跌近56美金,节奏很快。也是因为加息、税改通过导致黄金弱势。非农数据利空符合所有人预期,但是并没有迎来预期的跌幅,这让很多人失望,也让追数据的人亏损,看似平淡的非农,在江兵看来确实完美的节奏。

  假如今晚符合市场预期黄金大跌下破1240支撑,那么下周加息的来袭,就会加速驻底过程,那么意味着这个驻底的空间将变得很小,甚至可能只有10美元的跌幅,5天时间完成10美元跌幅,时间和空间对不上。唯有在不打破下跌趋势压力下非农以小涨过渡,下周加息前有20-25美金的跌幅,这样时间和空间才能吻合。所以这也是周四预测江.兵认为非农黄金会冲高回落的原因。所以对我来说非农小涨过渡非常符合我的节奏。

  可能很多人对驻底比较迷惑,哪里是底?为何说如果非农跌破1240黄金只有10美元的跌幅。没错,这次下跌的底部我看好1220/1225附近。

  口说无凭,那就从技术上分析一下为何是1220/1225。

  ——黄金趋势解读及下周展望——

  从周线来看,现在黄金处于上升节奏的回撤调整阶段,一眼就可看出趋势支撑就在1225附近,布林带下轨支撑也同样在1221,这是其一。

  ——5浪下跌,加息过候,黄金将迎来抄底契机——

  从日线来看,日内完成了5浪下跌的过程,目前正处于第五浪下跌的过程,那么5浪完成之后,将完成驻底,所以趋势来看,宣布加息后,极有可能完成驻底,黄金将迎来抄底契机。

  ——反弹不过趋势下跌压力,黄金下周短线继续放空——

  4小时来看黄金顺势下跌,形成完好的下跌趋势线,周五非农冲高也只不过触及1252一线,承压于趋势线,那么下周趋势比较明朗,依托趋势压力1252放空即可。

  操作建议:

  短线:1252空,损1257,目标1240

江兵论金:12.9黄金连失三大主力关口,目标飞流直下1232

  江兵论金,专业于黄金,原油技术分析,用口诀交易实盘,以心态掌握趋势,追求简单,一针见血。擅长捕捉趋势下的连续利润,震荡观望,趋势斩杀。将黄金与原油,货币类投资品区别对待,运用不同技术分析技巧剖析行情走势,以强弱法则判断日内行情,点位精准。专注黄金投资七年之久,一位将投资当做毕生事业的分析师。

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}, shareInfo: { shareUrl: 'https://m.toutiao.com/group/6497444933178229262/', abstract: '周五(12月8日)美国劳工部公布的11月份非农就业数据向好,但薪资依旧不及预期。11月非农就业人口新增22.8万,高于预期的19.5万;美国11月失业率为4.1%,维稳于17年低点。非农数据公布后,美国联邦基金利率期货暗示,美联储12月的加息概率为98.3%。
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