茅台总经理,有这样一个基金经理,茅台在他手里翻了四倍依然持有

作者: 发布时间:2017-12-09 17:19:03  来源: [手机访问]
导读: 今年以来白酒行业涨幅巨大,贵州茅台从300多元涨到了最高719元,回过头来看,今年买啥都不如买茅台。然而真正在白酒这个行业上赚到钱的个人和机构投资者都不是太
茅台总经理,有这样一个基金经理,茅台在他手里翻了四倍依然持有

今年以来白酒行业涨幅巨大,贵州茅台从300多元涨到了最高719元,回过头来看,今年买啥都不如买茅台。然而真正在白酒这个行业上赚到钱的个人和机构投资者都不是太多,原因有两个,进的时点晚了或进去之后拿不住,赚一个小波段就跑了。

有这样一个基金经理,茅台在他手里翻了四倍依然持有

银华富裕主题这只基金在白酒上赚足了利润,该基金2016年逆势上涨7.45%,2017年至今上涨46.7%,且该基金并不是白酒行业主题基金。通过历史持仓我们发现该基金在2015年二季度起,贵州茅台一直是第一大持仓股(那时候茅台股价还未超过200),直到最近一季度,茅台的仓位有所下降,整个基金依旧重仓白酒行业。这么早就介入白酒,且能无视调整和涨幅一直持有,这个基金经理应该对白酒行业应该有着自己独特的理解。

有这样一个基金经理,茅台在他手里翻了四倍依然持有

我们于2017年12月4日通过电话调研了银华富裕主题基金经理周可彦。以下为调研纪要

Q:请大概介绍下投资的框架和思路

A:投资框架可以归纳为80%的自下而上选股和20%的自上而下宏观判断。本人在做投资之前有多年的行业研究员经历,看过食品饮料、家电、轻工、机械设备、银行等行业。信奉“能力圈”的概念,认为研究创造价值。这也是回归投资的本质,事实上A股的风格也在朝着更加适合价值投资的方向转变,这也是产品在过去取得不错业绩的根本原因。

Q:请介绍下产品的行业配置决策

A:对于产品的操作思路,年初就基本确定。看好消费升级相关行业、存在行业拐点特征的寿险板块,有壁垒的制造业等。一旦选定,则不太做短期的择时,会以几个月为时间维度做一些动态平衡,涨得太高的兑现,在同一主线间适当调仓。

Q:谈谈对白酒行业的看法

A:白酒行业我的产品是介入的比较早的,2005年初就开始持有。到目前为止,该行业涨幅较大,但是配置价值依旧不减。白酒大规模涨价才刚刚开始,行业景气度极高。从估值的角度来看,PEG显著低于1。所以不会轻易卖出手中的筹码,短期的调整反而增加了操作的空间。

Q:除了白酒,接下来比较看好的方向还有哪些?

A: 工程机械、寿险和银行都相对比较看好。中国经济总体向好,导致银行资产质量提高,很多银行的市净率在0.8-1之间,ROE有15%,具备较高安全垫。挖掘机这个行业上一次高峰还是在10年前,本轮周期从从去年3季度开始回暖,国外相关公司如卡特彼勒已连续上涨近两年,我们也慢慢开始配置一些龙头公司。大宗商品也相对看好,但是这个对操作的要求较高。

Q:银华沪港深增长这只基金港股的配置如何

A:我们对于沪港深基金的定位是同时投资于沪、港、深三地的基金,港股的仓位约占1/3左右。对于一些看好的公司如果港股有更便宜的筹码我们会选择港股,如民生银行、中国太保等。港股的仓位不会打到太高,今年由于大陆资金的大举南下,恒生指数涨幅明显高于沪深300,而港股受欧美市场的影响较大,美国连续上涨了多年,风险不得不防。如果美国本土市场发生较大回调,投资于港股的海外机构投资者一定会回撤到本土。所以从性价比的角度来看,我们在银华沪港深基金中港股仓位不会太高,但这不会影响该基金的相对和绝对收益。

Q:很多投资经理认为明年赚钱会比今年难,你怎么看

A:我认同这一说法,今年的白马蓝筹普遍涨幅较大,我的两只基金净值今年都涨了40%以上。对于一些行业来说,估值也上升较多,而这一过程很难持续太长时间。接下来市场分化是大概率事件,需要寻找基本面持续向好的行业和公司。但另外一方面,我认为当前的市场环境总体是利于股市的,PPI稳步升高,目前是6.9%,CPI为1.9%,通胀还没有起来。随着房地产政策缩紧,债券收益率上行,股市是资金很大的一个去向。所以,对于明年能取得正收益还是有信心的。

Q:产品中新兴产业的配置比例不高,这个是出于哪些考虑

A:新兴产业是个很广的概念,比如我曾配置过的海康威视,这属于高端制造业,也可以算是新兴产业。投资要从全球稀缺性的角度来看,比如苹果产业链里最好的公司应该是苹果。A股性价比更高的公司则在别的地方,一些新兴产业公司还处于概念阶段,从业绩上来看很难作为二级市场投资的标的。一些国家重点支持的行业是出于国家战略层面考虑,当前阶段未必对二级市场股东有利。比如京东方A就烧了很多年的钱,二级市场投资的资金性质和投资期限与一级市场投资(封闭期长、赌概率)不同,且二级市场投资很难对公司的战略产生影响。

所以我投资二级市场还是追求确定性。确定性来自于深入的研究,对自己研究透的公司和行业就敢于一直持有,经历了几轮周期依旧能赚钱。今年白酒行业涨幅巨大,但很多人几进几出基本没赚到钱,这这种属于跟风买入的,对行业理解不深,对企业盈利模式不了解的就很难做出业绩,这里就体现了研究的价值。

后记

周可彦一直强调“能力圈”的概念,坚信研究带来价值。他说基金持仓中每一只白酒的特点和优势都如数家珍。投资公募基金的好处就在于我们自己不需要去研究每个行业和公司,把这些交给优秀的基金经理就行了。接下来他看好的工程机械行业目前涨幅目前落后于其他行业、寿险行业在中国方兴未艾,我们有理由这位优秀的基金经理管理的基金在接下来依然能够带给投资者合理的收益。


专注公募基金的研究和投资,请关注本头条号。

此外也欢迎关注我在且慢上构建的基金组合“利得行业轮动精选”,收益走势图如下:

有这样一个基金经理,茅台在他手里翻了四倍依然持有

欲了解详细信息,请下载且慢APP,搜索“利得行业轮动精选”基金组合,便可关注和跟投。

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}, shareInfo: { shareUrl: 'https://m.toutiao.com/group/6496428158097555981/', abstract: '今年以来白酒行业涨幅巨大,贵州茅台从300多元涨到了最高719元,回过头来看,今年买啥都不如买茅台。然而真正在白酒这个行业上赚到钱的个人和机构投资者都不是太多,原因有两个,进的时点晚了或进去之后拿不住,赚一个小波段就跑了。
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