央行必须摆脱被银行博弈的处境

作者: 发布时间:2017-12-09 17:19:53  来源: [手机访问]
导读: 冉学东判断利率走势,最基本的思考依据是通胀。此次金融危机以来,尽管通过量化宽松政策,各国央行投放了大量基础货币,商业银行创造货币更是变本加厉,但是让传
央行必须摆脱被银行博弈的处境

冉学东

判断利率走势,最基本的思考依据是通胀。此次金融危机以来,尽管通过量化宽松政策,各国央行投放了大量基础货币,商业银行创造货币更是变本加厉,但是让传统货币金融学大跌眼镜的是,通胀一直在低位运行,整个全球经济处于近乎通缩状态。

最近几年美国经济持续强势增长,欧洲经济复苏也已经确立,即使日本的经济也出现好转。

在此情况下,尽管物价没有出现明显的上涨,但是美联储也开始启动了加息和缩表进程,欧洲央行也逐渐缩减宽松政策,英国已经开始了首次加息,亚洲国家韩国也启动了首次加息。

由此可以看出,目前全球央行货币政策的着力点,已经不仅仅是参考物价,而是更着眼于资产价格,更加着力于降低整个经济体系的杠杆率,而降低杠杆率的目的是防范风险。

正如近日央行金融研究所所长孙国峰所分析的,危机前学术界讨论比较多的是货币政策与资产价格的关系,现在讨论的话题已经不仅仅局限于资产价格,而是货币政策目标要考虑更广泛的金融周期。

所谓金融周期,就是银行的信贷周期,反映的仍然是经济周期,因为资产价格毕竟只是一个表象,是金融周期的一个体现。金融周期的背后是什么?是银行的信贷,或者说广义信贷的扩张。资产泡沫的背后是银行的过度借贷,而过度借贷往往又是由超低利率引起,从这个角度看金融周期是经济金融体系内生的,和货币政策有密切的关系,因此货币政策应当考虑金融周期。

银行为什么在一定时期会出现大幅度扩张信贷的行为?因为利率过低。所以要防范金融风险,仅仅通过控制杠杆率无济于事,必须在利率上下功夫,孙国峰说,“假如利率长期处于低位,即使通过宏观审慎政策手段,以及微观审慎的手段,试图去控制杠杆率,控制冒险行为,可能其效果也是事倍功半。所以从这个意义来说,货币政策和宏观审慎政策应当共同应对金融周期。”

那么控制长期利率成为未来中央银行的首要任务,过去中央银行只调节短期利率,因为按照利率的期限结构理论,长期利率是由多个短期利率所组成,中央银行的短期利率以及短期利率的变化路径可以决定长期利率。这次危机以来,利率的期限结构理论不能很好地解释长期利率的变化。

具体表现是,由于美联储的持续加息,短期利率在上涨,但是长期利率一直在低位徘徊,第一次加息时,美国十年期国债收益率是2.269%,加了5次息后,十年期的国债收益率仅仅到2.369%,对此很多人认为是美国经济再次衰退的前兆。

孙国峰对此的解释是,资产管理行业在全球兴起,长期债券的价格以及背后反映的收益率水平在很大程度上受到资产管理机构现有头寸和自身投资策略的影响,并不完全基于通胀预期。

在这种情况下美联储此次缩表就是意在提高长期利率,因为危机之前美联储的资产负债表规模在4.5万亿美元左右,按照现在市场的估计可能缩表的最终目标是下调到3万亿美元,距离危机前不到1万亿美元的水平还差很远。真正的目的何在?还是为了提高长期利率。

提高长期利率需要一定的货币传导机制,其中最主要的是银行,银行背后有政府显性或者隐性的担保,而且采取了有限责任公司的公司治理结构,所以银行天然具有冒险倾向。“如果中央银行长期保持低利率水平,就会鼓励银行的冒险行为,并且可能和中央银行的货币政策之间形成博弈,也就是说如果市场预期到中央银行在金融市场受到压力就会降低利率,反而会鼓励一些银行,特别是一些高杠杆的银行过度承担风险,从而导致了风险或者危机发生的概率提高,从这个意义来说,中央银行的货币政策应当抑制银行的冒险行为,不能营造实际利率长期处于低位的预期,防止市场通过过度的冒险行为倒逼中央银行继续维持低利率。”孙国峰说。

也就是说,商业银行跟中央银行是一个博弈的过程,中央银行容易受到绑架,所谓狭路相逢勇者胜,中央银行不让步,“我就死给你看”,由于担忧风险,中央银行不得不让步,向市场注入资金,降低利率。

这个情景从2013年6月钱荒以来,在我国中央银行和商业银行之间一再上演,孙国峰在这里表面上说的是美国,笔者理解事实上说的就是中国。中国央行必须从这个怪圈中跳出来,那么2018年就是关键的时间窗口。

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}, shareInfo: { shareUrl: 'https://m.toutiao.com/group/6497194451880903182/', abstract: '冉学东判断利率走势,最基本的思考依据是通胀。此次金融危机以来,尽管通过量化宽松政策,各国央行投放了大量基础货币,商业银行创造货币更是变本加厉,但是让传统货币金融学大跌眼镜的是,通胀一直在低位运行,整个全球经济处于近乎通缩状态。
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